Today / Finland - Ykkönen / VJS vs TPV

VJS vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Monday, June 29, 2026, 15:30

VJS

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

TPV

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.4%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.0%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-17.5%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-17.7%4+-23.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.4% 75.2% 1.33 -18.3%

Draw 20.1% 20.8% 4.80 -2.1%

Away win 18.5% 14.3% 7.00 +17.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Over 3.5 39.8% 54.6% 1.83 -27.2%

BTTS 55.3% 64.5% 1.55 -14.3%

Home O1.5 60.6% 78.1% 1.28 -22.4%

Away O1.5 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 12.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.3%

H 61% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 3–0 9.2%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VJS2.4

TPV0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VJS · PPG 1.60

TPV · PPG 0.20

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=61.4%

Win probability 1X2

VJS (H) 61.4%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -18.3%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.1%

TPV (A) 18.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

VJS face TPV in Finland - Ykkönen on Monday, June 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VJS a 61% chance, the draw 20% and TPV 19%, so VJS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for VJS and 0.8 for TPV (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VJS are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.20 for TPV. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 2-1.

VJS vs TPV Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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