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KuPS Ak. vs Tampere Utd Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 14:00

KuPS Ak.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tampere Utd

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-19.9%0-212.2%0-310.1%0-4+11.2%1 1-03.0%1-17.4%1-29.1%1-37.5%1-4+8.4%2 2-01.1%2-12.8%2-23.4%2-32.8%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.1% 21.7% 4.60 -7.3%

Draw 17.2% 25.6% 3.90 -19.8%

Away win 63.8% 63.7% 1.57 +0.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 42.3% 50.0% 2.00 -15.4%

BTTS 55.6% 69.4% 1.44 -19.9%

Home O1.5 33.7% 36.4% 2.75 -7.3%

Away O1.5 69.2% 69.4% 1.44 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob55.6%

A 64% / xG 0.7-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.2%

#2 0–3 10.1%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 1–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS Ak.0.7

Tampere Utd2.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS AK. · PPG 1.00

TAMPERE UTD · PPG 2.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

KuPS Ak. (H) 19.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -7.3%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -19.8%

Tampere Utd (A) 63.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS Ak. face Tampere Utd in Finland - Ykkönen on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS Ak. a 19% chance, the draw 17% and Tampere Utd 64%, so Tampere Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for KuPS Ak. and 2.5 for Tampere Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS Ak. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Tampere Utd. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-3.

KuPS Ak. vs Tampere Utd Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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