SalPa vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Finland - Ykkönen Group Stage Salon urheilupuisto· Salo Friday, June 12, 2026 15:30

SalPa PPG 2.00

VS PENDING

KuPS Ak. PPG 0.25

Home + Over 2.5· +19.8% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

SalPa face KuPS Ak. in Finland - Ykkönen on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SalPa a 63% chance, the draw 18% and KuPS Ak. 19%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for SalPa and 1.2 for KuPS Ak. (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SalPa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.25 for KuPS Ak.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.8%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 63.0%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -9.3%

Draw 18.0%

Odds: 4.33 EV: -13.2%

Away 19.0%

Odds: 5.00 EV: -3.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 73.0% Odds: 1.33 -2.9%

Over 3.5 49.7% Odds: 1.83 -9.0%

BTTS 63.7% Odds: 1.44 -8.3%

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-1

2nd 2-1

3rd 3-0

4th 4-1

5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

SalPa

3.24

KuPS Ak.

1.16

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -2.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -2.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home + Over 2.5 (+19.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5/Under 64%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 46%

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=63.0%