Today / Finland - Ykkönen / SalPa vs KuPS Ak.

SalPa vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 15:30

SalPa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

KuPS Ak.

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.4%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.0%1-14.6%1-22.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.5%2-17.5%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-18.1%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-012.8%4+-114.8%4+-28.6%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 69.4% 1.44 -9.3%

Draw 18.0% 23.1% 4.33 -13.2%

Away win 19.0% 20.0% 5.00 -3.0%

Over 2.5 73.0% 75.2% 1.33 -2.9%

Over 3.5 49.7% 54.6% 1.83 -9.0%

BTTS 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Home O1.5 76.0% 75.2% 1.33 +1.1%

Away O1.5 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 12.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.7%

H 63% / xG 3.2-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.5%

#3 3–0 7.0%

#4 4–1 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SalPa3.2

KuPS Ak.1.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SALPA · PPG 2.00

KUPS AK. · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=63.0%

Win probability 1X2

SalPa (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -9.3%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -13.2%

KuPS Ak. (A) 19.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

SalPa face KuPS Ak. in Finland - Ykkönen on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SalPa a 63% chance, the draw 18% and KuPS Ak. 19%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for SalPa and 1.2 for KuPS Ak. (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SalPa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.25 for KuPS Ak.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 4-3.

SalPa vs KuPS Ak. Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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