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SalPa vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 13:00

SalPa

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

VJS

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.9%0-23.3%0-31.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.7%1-18.1%1-26.9%1-33.9%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.9%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.4%3-15.8%3-24.9%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.8%4+-24.1%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 48.8% 2.05 -8.4%

Draw 21.7% 27.8% 3.60 -13.1%

Away win 33.6% 35.7% 2.80 -5.9%

Over 2.5 67.1% 73.5% 1.36 -8.7%

Over 3.5 43.9% 54.6% 1.83 -19.7%

BTTS 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Home O1.5 61.2% 57.8% 1.73 +5.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 52.4% 1.91 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

H 45% / xG 2.1-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2✓ 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SalPa2.1

VJS1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SALPA · PPG 2.17

VJS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=44.7%

Win probability 1X2

SalPa (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -8.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.1%

VJS (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

SalPa face VJS in Finland - Ykkönen on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SalPa a 45% chance, the draw 22% and VJS 34%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for SalPa and 1.7 for VJS (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SalPa are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for VJS. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-2.

SalPa vs VJS Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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