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JJK vs Inter Turku B Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Thursday, June 25, 2026, 16:00

JJK

PPG 1.50 · HOME

11 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Inter Turku B

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.2%0-21.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.1%1-13.8%1-23.4%1-32.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.4%2-16.1%2-25.5%2-33.3%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.6%3-16.6%3-26.0%3-33.6%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-112.0%4+-210.9%4+-36.5%4+-4+4.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 66.7% 1.50 -13.8%

Draw 18.5% 23.8% 4.20 -13.4%

Away win 24.0% 20.8% 4.80 +9.1%

Over 2.5 75.6% 76.9% 1.30 -1.7%

Over 3.5 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

BTTS 68.6% 73.5% 1.36 -6.7%

Home O1.5 77.8% 75.2% 1.33 +3.5%

Away O1.5 49.7% 40.0% 2.50 +24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 12.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 11-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob68.6%

H 57% / xG 3.2-1.8 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.6%

#2 2–1 6.1%

#3 3–2 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.5%

#5 4–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JJK3.2

Inter Turku B1.8

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JJK · PPG 1.50

INTER TURKU B · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

JJK (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.8%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -13.4%

Inter Turku B (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

JJK face Inter Turku B in Finland - Ykkönen on Thursday, June 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JJK a 57% chance, the draw 19% and Inter Turku B 24%, so JJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for JJK and 1.8 for Inter Turku B (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JJK are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Inter Turku B. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +24.3%. This match finished 11-1.

JJK vs Inter Turku B Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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