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Tampere Utd vs OLS Oulu Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Thursday, June 11, 2026, 15:30

Tampere Utd

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

OLS Oulu

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.3%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.7%1-112.8%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.8%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.0%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 47.6% 2.10 -5.7%

Draw 27.5% 30.8% 3.25 -6.4%

Away win 27.6% 32.3% 3.10 -8.7%

Over 2.5 48.9% 63.7% 1.57 -23.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 42.0% 2.38 -19.9%

BTTS 52.2% 69.4% 1.44 -24.8%

Home O1.5 41.6% 55.6% 1.80 -25.1%

Away O1.5 31.1% 44.4% 2.25 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampere Utd1.4

OLS Oulu1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPERE UTD · PPG 2.00

OLS OULU · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Tampere Utd (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.7%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.4%

OLS Oulu (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampere Utd face OLS Oulu in Finland - Ykkönen on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampere Utd a 45% chance, the draw 28% and OLS Oulu 28%, so Tampere Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Tampere Utd and 1.0 for OLS Oulu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampere Utd are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for OLS Oulu. This match finished 3-0.

Tampere Utd vs OLS Oulu Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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