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Toronto vs Austin Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 17:00

Toronto

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Austin

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+28.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.1%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.9%1-17.6%1-24.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-17.8%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-18.7%4+-24.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.4% 52.6% 1.90 +28.1%

Draw 17.5% 28.6% 3.50 -38.8%

Away win 15.1% 26.0% 3.85 -41.9%

Over 2.5 69.4% 54.1% 1.85 +28.4%

Over 3.5 48.1% 30.8% 3.25 +56.3%

BTTS 61.2% 57.8% 1.73 +5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.2%

H 67% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 1–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto2.5

Austin1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.4% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO · PPG 2.00

AUSTIN · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Toronto (H) 67.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +28.1%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -38.8%

Austin (A) 15.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -41.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto face Austin in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Austin 15%, so Toronto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Toronto and 1.1 for Austin (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Austin. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +56.3%. This match finished 3-3.

Toronto vs Austin Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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