Toronto vs Austin Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

USA - Major League Soccer Regular Season - 8 BMO Field· Toronto Saturday, April 18, 2026 17:00

Toronto PPG 2.00

3-3 MISS

Austin PPG 0.33

Over3.5· +56.3% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto face Austin in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Austin 15%, so Toronto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Toronto and 1.1 for Austin (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Austin. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +56.3%. This match finished 3-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 67.4%

Odds: 1.90 EV: +28.1%

Draw 17.5%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -38.8%

Away 15.1%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -41.9%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 69.4% Odds: 1.85 +28.4%

Over 3.5 48.1% Odds: 3.25 +56.3%

BTTS 61.2% Odds: 1.73 +5.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Toronto

2.48

Austin

1.10

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +28.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+56.3%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.7%

Bet Hit 50% (48 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus