Tampa Bay vs Hartford A. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

USA - USL Championship Group Stage Al Lang Stadium Saturday, June 13, 2026 23:30

Tampa Bay PPG 2.33

VS PENDING

Hartford A. PPG 1.60

Away· +27.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay face Hartford A. in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Hartford A. 20%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tampa Bay and 0.6 for Hartford A. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Hartford A.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.5%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.1%

Odds: 1.40 EV: -25.7%

Draw 27.3%

Odds: 3.90 EV: +3.9%

Away 19.7%

Odds: 7.40 EV: +27.5%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.6% Odds: 1.80 -30.5%

Over 3.5 21.8% Odds: 3.00 -20.8%

BTTS 47.6% Odds: 1.93 -8.1%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0

2nd 0-0

3rd 2-0

4th 1-1

5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Tampa Bay

1.33

Hartford A.

0.56

Model SuggestionHome -25.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -25.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+27.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 14.2%

Bet Hit 54% (13 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.60)