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Tampa Bay vs Hartford A. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 23:30

Tampa Bay

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hartford A.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-18.5%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-111.3%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-17.5%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.4%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 71.4% 1.40 -25.7%

Draw 27.3% 25.6% 3.90 +3.9%

Away win 19.7% 13.5% 7.40 +27.5%

Over 2.5 38.6% 55.6% 1.80 -30.5%

Over 3.5 21.8% 33.3% 3.00 -20.8%

BTTS 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Home O1.5 41.6% 64.5% 1.55 -35.5%

Away O1.5 18.0% 22.2% 4.50 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.0%

#2 0–0 15.0%

#3 2–0 13.3%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampa Bay1.3

Hartford A.0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.6% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPA BAY · PPG 2.33

HARTFORD A. · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Tampa Bay (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -25.7%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.9%

Hartford A. (A) 19.7%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay face Hartford A. in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Hartford A. 20%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tampa Bay and 0.6 for Hartford A. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Hartford A.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Tampa Bay vs Hartford A. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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