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Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 00:00

Birmingham Legion

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

New Mexico United

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-113.5%0-26.8%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.4%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.8%2-16.8%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.3%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 48.8% 2.05 -26.6%

Draw 29.3% 28.6% 3.50 +1.5%

Away win 34.9% 32.3% 3.10 +8.2%

Over 2.5 43.6% 56.5% 1.77 -22.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 33.9% 2.95 -19.3%

BTTS 48.5% 61.7% 1.62 -21.4%

Home O1.5 35.0% 51.3% 1.95 -31.8%

Away O1.5 30.4% 39.2% 2.55 -22.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.4%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 1–0 13.4%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Birmingham Legion1.0

New Mexico United1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BIRMINGHAM LEGION · PPG 0.89

NEW MEXICO UNITED · PPG 1.43

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.00, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Birmingham Legion (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.6%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.5%

New Mexico United (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Birmingham Legion face New Mexico United in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Birmingham Legion a 36% chance, the draw 29% and New Mexico United 35%, so Birmingham Legion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Birmingham Legion and 1.0 for New Mexico United (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Birmingham Legion are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.43 for New Mexico United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%.

Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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