Today / USA - USL Championship / Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC

Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 02:00

Monterey Bay

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orange County SC

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-110.8%0-27.4%0-33.4%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.2%1-112.6%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.4%2-17.4%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.1%3-12.9%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 46.5% 2.15 -18.1%

Draw 26.4% 30.3% 3.30 -7.7%

Away win 35.5% 33.3% 3.00 +6.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.8% 1.93 +4.0%

Over 3.5 32.8% 29.9% 3.35 +9.9%

BTTS 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Away O1.5 41.9% 37.0% 2.70 +13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterey Bay1.2

Orange County SC1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 1.62

ORANGE COUNTY SC · PPG 1.70

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monterey Bay (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -18.1%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.7%

Orange County SC (A) 35.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterey Bay face Orange County SC in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterey Bay a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Orange County SC 36%, so Monterey Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Monterey Bay and 1.4 for Orange County SC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterey Bay are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.70 for Orange County SC. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions