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Brooklyn vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 23:00

Brooklyn

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Antonio

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-110.4%0-26.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.3%1-112.9%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-17.9%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.3%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 42.0% 2.38 -10.0%

Draw 27.0% 29.9% 3.35 -5.7%

Away win 35.2% 38.2% 2.62 -7.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 29.5% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

Away O1.5 36.9% 41.7% 2.40 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.4%

A 35% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 0–1 10.4%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brooklyn1.2

San Antonio1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BROOKLYN · PPG 1.00

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brooklyn (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -10.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.7%

San Antonio (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brooklyn face San Antonio in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brooklyn a 38% chance, the draw 27% and San Antonio 35%, so Brooklyn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Brooklyn and 1.3 for San Antonio (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brooklyn are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.25 for San Antonio. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Brooklyn vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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