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FC Tulsa vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 00:30

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lexington

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.3%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.3%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.2%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.3%3-14.6%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 37.7% 2.65 +23.8%

Draw 25.4% 30.8% 3.25 -10.5%

Away win 27.8% 41.7% 2.40 -20.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 32.8% 31.3% 3.20 +5.0%

BTTS 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Home O1.5 46.3% 41.7% 2.40 +11.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Tulsa1.5

Lexington1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TULSA · PPG 1.75

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Tulsa (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +23.8%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.5%

Lexington (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Tulsa face Lexington in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Tulsa a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Lexington 28%, so FC Tulsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Tulsa and 1.1 for Lexington (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Tulsa are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.14 for Lexington. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.4%.

FC Tulsa vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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