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Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 23:30

Louisville City

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Birmingham Legion

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.5%0-23.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.4%1-110.3%1-26.3%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.0%3-16.1%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.4%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 74.1% 1.35 -32.6%

Draw 24.3% 21.7% 4.60 +7.1%

Away win 25.8% 14.3% 7.00 +48.4%

Over 2.5 61.2% 67.6% 1.48 -9.4%

Over 3.5 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

BTTS 60.0% 59.9% 1.67 +0.2%

Home O1.5 53.6% 73.5% 1.36 -27.1%

Away O1.5 36.5% 27.8% 3.60 +31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.0%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Louisville City1.9

Birmingham Legion1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.62

BIRMINGHAM LEGION · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Louisville City (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -32.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +7.1%

Birmingham Legion (A) 25.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +48.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Louisville City face Birmingham Legion in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Louisville City a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Birmingham Legion 26%, so Louisville City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Louisville City and 1.2 for Birmingham Legion (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Louisville City are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.00 for Birmingham Legion. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +58.1%.

Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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