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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 23:00

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-19.9%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.8%1-113.0%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.5%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.7%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 26.6% 28.2% 3.55 -3.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 46.5% 2.15 +8.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 25.3% 3.95 +8.5%

BTTS 52.6% 52.6% 1.90 -0.1%

Home O1.5 38.3% 46.5% 2.15 -17.6%

Away O1.5 27.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.3

FC Tulsa0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS · PPG 1.88

FC TULSA · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -9.7%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

FC Tulsa (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pittsburgh Riverhounds face FC Tulsa in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pittsburgh Riverhounds a 46% chance, the draw 27% and FC Tulsa 27%, so Pittsburgh Riverhounds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 0.9 for FC Tulsa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pittsburgh Riverhounds are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.33 for FC Tulsa. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +18.4%.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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