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Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 02:00

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sacramento Republic

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-110.1%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-113.0%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.4%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.6%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 40.8% 2.45 +10.5%

Draw 28.5% 30.3% 3.30 -3.6%

Away win 26.4% 38.5% 2.60 -18.8%

Over 2.5 43.6% 54.1% 1.85 -19.3%

Over 3.5 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

BTTS 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

Home O1.5 38.5% 44.4% 2.25 -13.4%

Away O1.5 26.5% 42.6% 2.35 -22.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakland Roots1.3

Sacramento Republic0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.50

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oakland Roots (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +10.5%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.6%

Sacramento Republic (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakland Roots face Sacramento Republic in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakland Roots a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Sacramento Republic 26%, so Oakland Roots are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Oakland Roots and 0.9 for Sacramento Republic (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakland Roots are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Sacramento Republic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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