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El Paso Locomotive vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 01:00

El Paso Locomotive

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.7%0-21.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.5%1-15.0%1-23.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.3%2-17.6%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.7%3-25.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-112.2%4+-28.7%4+-34.2%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 69.4% 1.44 -16.6%

Draw 17.8% 22.7% 4.40 -13.0%

Away win 24.3% 17.4% 5.75 +23.8%

Over 2.5 72.6% 65.4% 1.53 +11.1%

Over 3.5 52.0% 42.6% 2.35 +22.2%

BTTS 64.5% 60.6% 1.65 +6.4%

Home O1.5 77.3% 70.4% 1.42 +9.8%

Away O1.5 41.9% 29.9% 3.35 +40.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.5%

H 58% / xG 3.0-1.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 1–1 5.0%

#4 4–1 5.8%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Paso Locomotive3.0

Sporting JAX1.4

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE · PPG 0.83

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 0.83 vs 0.25 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

El Paso Locomotive (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -16.6%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -13.0%

Sporting JAX (A) 24.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Paso Locomotive face Sporting JAX in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Paso Locomotive a 58% chance, the draw 18% and Sporting JAX 24%, so El Paso Locomotive are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for El Paso Locomotive and 1.4 for Sporting JAX (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Paso Locomotive are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.25 for Sporting JAX. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +40.4%.

El Paso Locomotive vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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