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Phoenix Rising vs Hartford Athletic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 02:30

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hartford Athletic

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-110.7%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-113.1%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-18.0%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 54.1% 1.85 -16.4%

Draw 27.9% 29.0% 3.45 -2.3%

Away win 26.8% 27.8% 3.60 -2.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 55.6% 1.80 -15.8%

Over 3.5 26.4% 33.3% 3.00 -12.5%

BTTS 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

Home O1.5 36.8% 54.1% 1.85 -31.9%

Away O1.5 20.1% 34.7% 2.88 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Phoenix Rising1.2

Hartford Athletic0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.50

HARTFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Phoenix Rising (H) 45.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.3%

Hartford Athletic (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Phoenix Rising face Hartford Athletic in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Phoenix Rising a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Hartford Athletic 27%, so Phoenix Rising are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Phoenix Rising and 0.8 for Hartford Athletic (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Phoenix Rising are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.38 for Hartford Athletic.

Phoenix Rising vs Hartford Athletic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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