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Charleston vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 23:30

Charleston

PPG 2.60 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.4%0-25.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-113.1%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.5%2-18.2%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.1%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 58.8% 1.70 -31.1%

Draw 28.3% 29.0% 3.45 -1.4%

Away win 31.2% 22.2% 4.50 +40.4%

Over 2.5 48.9% 51.3% 1.95 -4.6%

Over 3.5 28.1% 29.0% 3.45 -1.8%

BTTS 52.2% 54.6% 1.83 -4.5%

Home O1.5 41.6% 54.6% 1.83 -23.9%

Away O1.5 32.8% 27.4% 3.65 +19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.2%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charleston1.3

FC Tulsa1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTON · PPG 2.60

FC TULSA · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=40.5%

Win probability 1X2

Charleston (H) 40.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -31.1%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.4%

FC Tulsa (A) 31.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +40.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charleston face FC Tulsa in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charleston a 41% chance, the draw 28% and FC Tulsa 31%, so Charleston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Charleston and 1.1 for FC Tulsa (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charleston are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.60 for FC Tulsa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.4%. This match finished 5-1.

Charleston vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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