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Sporting JAX vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 23:00

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.40 · HOME

2 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Detroit City

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.9%0-29.0%0-34.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.1%2-16.3%2-24.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.2%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 19.0% 5.25 +64.8%

Draw 25.2% 26.3% 3.80 -2.5%

Away win 43.4% 64.5% 1.55 -32.7%

Over 2.5 54.3% 56.5% 1.77 -3.9%

Over 3.5 32.5% 33.9% 2.95 -4.1%

BTTS 55.7% 56.5% 1.77 -1.4%

Home O1.5 36.7% 27.4% 3.65 +34.0%

Away O1.5 49.4% 60.6% 1.65 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-6

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.7%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX1.0

Detroit City1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.40

DETROIT CITY · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.40), Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX (H) 31.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +64.8%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.5%

Detroit City (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX face Detroit City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Detroit City 43%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sporting JAX and 1.5 for Detroit City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 0.33 for Detroit City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +64.8%. This match finished 2-6.

Sporting JAX vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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