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Pittsburgh vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 23:00

Pittsburgh

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Indy Eleven

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-19.1%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.8%1-112.6%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.7%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 55.6% 1.80 -22.1%

Draw 27.3% 29.0% 3.45 -3.5%

Away win 29.4% 26.0% 3.85 +7.9%

Over 2.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

BTTS 53.4% 59.9% 1.67 -10.8%

Home O1.5 41.6% 55.6% 1.80 -25.1%

Away O1.5 32.8% 33.3% 3.00 -1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.4%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0✓ 10.8%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pittsburgh1.4

Indy Eleven1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PITTSBURGH · PPG 2.25

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=43.3%

Win probability 1X2

Pittsburgh (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -22.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.5%

Indy Eleven (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pittsburgh face Indy Eleven in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pittsburgh a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Indy Eleven 29%, so Pittsburgh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Pittsburgh and 1.2 for Indy Eleven (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pittsburgh are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Indy Eleven. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Pittsburgh vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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