Today / USA - USL Championship / Lexington vs San Antonio

Lexington vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 23:00

Lexington

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

San Antonio

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.3%0-26.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.8%1-112.5%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.4%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.9%3-13.7%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 51.3% 1.95 -18.5%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 34.1% 29.9% 3.35 +14.2%

Over 2.5 55.1% 54.1% 1.85 +1.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 31.3% 3.20 +16.5%

BTTS 59.2% 58.8% 1.70 +0.6%

Home O1.5 41.6% 51.3% 1.95 -18.9%

Away O1.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.2%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington1.3

San Antonio1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.40

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Lexington (H) 41.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -18.5%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

San Antonio (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington face San Antonio in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington a 42% chance, the draw 24% and San Antonio 34%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lexington and 1.3 for San Antonio (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.17 for San Antonio. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Lexington vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions