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Loudoun Utd vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 22:00

Loudoun Utd

PPG 0.83 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rhode Island

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.2%0-26.2%0-33.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.1%1-110.5%1-29.0%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.6%2-26.5%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.2%3-13.7%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 29.4% 3.40 +13.2%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -10.8%

Away win 42.2% 51.3% 1.95 -17.7%

Over 2.5 60.6% 54.1% 1.85 +12.1%

Over 3.5 37.9% 31.3% 3.20 +21.3%

BTTS 61.6% 58.8% 1.70 +4.7%

Home O1.5 44.5% 35.7% 2.80 +24.6%

Away O1.5 49.4% 51.3% 1.95 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.6%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loudoun Utd1.5

Rhode Island1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUDOUN UTD · PPG 0.83

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Loudoun Utd (H) 33.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +13.2%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.8%

Rhode Island (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Loudoun Utd face Rhode Island in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loudoun Utd a 33% chance, the draw 25% and Rhode Island 42%, so Rhode Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Loudoun Utd and 1.7 for Rhode Island (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loudoun Utd are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.75 for Rhode Island. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 1-4.

Loudoun Utd vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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