Mariehamn vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Finland - Veikkausliiga Regular Season - 10 Saturday, June 13, 2026 16:00

Mariehamn PPG 0.75

VS PENDING

Gnistan PPG 0.50

HomeO15· +4.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariehamn face Gnistan in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariehamn a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Gnistan 43%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mariehamn and 1.2 for Gnistan (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariehamn are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.50 for Gnistan. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.4%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 29.0%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +2.6%

Draw 28.1%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -3.5%

Away 42.9%

Odds: 1.94 EV: -16.8%

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.9% Odds: 1.90 -9.0%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 3.25 -5.2%

BTTS 47.8% Odds: 1.70 -18.7%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 0-0

3rd 0-1

4th 1-0

5th 0-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Mariehamn

0.95

Gnistan

1.20

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5/Under 27%

BTTS/No 27%

Score Hit 33%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.50)