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Mariehamn vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 16:00

Mariehamn

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Gnistan

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-114.0%0-28.4%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.2%2-16.3%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.7%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 27.8% 3.60 +2.6%

Draw 28.1% 29.9% 3.35 -3.5%

Away win 42.9% 51.5% 1.94 -16.8%

Over 2.5 47.9% 52.6% 1.90 -9.0%

Over 3.5 28.1% 30.8% 3.25 -5.2%

BTTS 47.8% 58.8% 1.70 -18.7%

Home O1.5 34.8% 33.3% 3.00 +4.4%

Away O1.5 32.9% 50.0% 2.00 -34.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 25.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.8%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariehamn0.9

Gnistan1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.75

GNISTAN · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Mariehamn (H) 29.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.6%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -3.5%

Gnistan (A) 42.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariehamn face Gnistan in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariehamn a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Gnistan 43%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Mariehamn and 1.2 for Gnistan (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariehamn are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.50 for Gnistan. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 0-3.

Mariehamn vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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