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Inter Turku vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 12:00

Inter Turku

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gnistan

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-18.0%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-111.7%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-18.6%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-14.2%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 58.5% 1.71 -11.1%

Draw 26.9% 27.4% 3.65 -1.1%

Away win 21.1% 23.0% 4.35 -4.9%

Over 2.5 43.6% 57.1% 1.75 -23.7%

Over 3.5 23.8% 35.7% 2.80 -20.0%

BTTS 48.5% 59.9% 1.67 -19.0%

Home O1.5 46.3% 57.8% 1.73 -19.9%

Away O1.5 20.1% 31.3% 3.20 -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -3.2%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Turku1.5

Gnistan0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER TURKU · PPG 2.00

GNISTAN · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Inter Turku (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -11.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.1%

Gnistan (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Turku face Gnistan in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Turku a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Gnistan 21%, so Inter Turku are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Inter Turku and 0.7 for Gnistan (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Turku are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.12 for Gnistan.

Inter Turku vs Gnistan Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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