Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / HJK Helsinki vs Turku PS
HJK Helsinki vs Turku PS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga
Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 14:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 49 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%
Form & verdict
HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.75
TURKU PS · PPG 0.43
xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
HJK Helsinki face Turku PS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJK Helsinki a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Turku PS 23%, so HJK Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for HJK Helsinki and 0.9 for Turku PS (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJK Helsinki are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.43 for Turku PS. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.8%.