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Ilves vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 12:00

Ilves

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lahti

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.0%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.5%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 46.7% 2.14 +5.5%

Draw 24.9% 27.8% 3.60 -6.2%

Away win 25.8% 34.2% 2.92 -14.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 33.2% 39.2% 2.55 -15.3%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Away O1.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -3.2%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves1.6

Lahti1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES · PPG 1.86

LAHTI · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ilves (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +5.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.2%

Lahti (A) 25.8%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves face Lahti in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Lahti 26%, so Ilves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ilves and 1.2 for Lahti (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Lahti. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.1%.

Ilves vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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