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Lahti vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 16:00

Lahti

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

SJK

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+25.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-16.1%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-110.6%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.3%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 45.5% 2.20 +25.8%

Draw 22.9% 29.4% 3.40 -13.3%

Away win 19.9% 34.0% 2.94 -24.9%

Over 2.5 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Over 3.5 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -4.9%

BTTS 47.8% 60.6% 1.65 -21.1%

Home O1.5 54.8% 47.6% 2.10 +15.1%

Away O1.5 24.3% 39.2% 2.55 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 25.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.8%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lahti1.7

SJK0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHTI · PPG 1.60

SJK · PPG 0.25

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=57.2%

Win probability 1X2

Lahti (H) 57.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +25.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.3%

SJK (A) 19.9%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lahti face SJK in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lahti a 57% chance, the draw 23% and SJK 20%, so Lahti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lahti and 0.7 for SJK (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lahti are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.25 for SJK. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Lahti vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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