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Atvidaberg vs Rosengard Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 14 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

Atvidaberg

PPG 2.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rosengard

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.9%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.1%1-111.5%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.7%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 2.25 +11.2%

Draw 25.0% 3.55 -6.8%

Away win 25.6% 2.70 -18.5%

Over 2.5 61.3% 1.65 +1.1%

Over 3.5 37.0% 2.60 -3.8%

BTTS 56.5% 1.53 -13.6%

Home Over 1.5 52.6% 1.93 +1.5%

Away Over 1.5 36.3% 2.15 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.5%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atvidaberg1.7

Rosengard1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATVIDABERG · PPG 2.29

ROSENGARD · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.29), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Atvidaberg (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +11.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.8%

Rosengard (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atvidaberg face Rosengard in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atvidaberg a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Rosengard 26%, so Atvidaberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atvidaberg and 1.1 for Rosengard (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atvidaberg are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 2.00 for Rosengard. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.2%.

Atvidaberg vs Rosengard Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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