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Lund vs Skovde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 14 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

Lund

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Skovde AIK

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-14.8%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-19.6%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.3%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-14.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 1.44 -16.6%

Draw 22.2% 4.20 -4.1%

Away win 19.9% 6.00 +11.6%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.53 -17.4%

Over 3.5 32.6% 2.35 -23.4%

BTTS 52.7% 1.65 -13.0%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.42 -22.8%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 3.35 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 58% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lund2.0

Skovde AIK0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUND · PPG 2.40

SKOVDE AIK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=57.9%

Win probability 1X2

Lund (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -16.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.1%

Skovde AIK (A) 19.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lund face Skovde AIK in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lund a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Skovde AIK 20%, so Lund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lund and 0.7 for Skovde AIK (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lund are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Skovde AIK. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.6%.

Lund vs Skovde AIK Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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