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Kristianstad vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 14 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 17:00

Kristianstad

PPG 0.83 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Trelleborg

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-19.6%0-211.5%0-39.2%0-4+9.6%1 1-03.3%1-17.9%1-29.5%1-37.5%1-4+7.9%2 2-01.4%2-13.3%2-23.9%2-33.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 12.8% 4.50 -25.4%

Draw 20.6% 3.80 -13.0%

Away win 66.6% 1.64 +9.2%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.65 +5.8%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.60 +3.5%

BTTS 52.8% 1.62 -14.5%

Home Over 1.5 32.5% 3.00 -2.5%

Away Over 1.5 69.5% 1.60 +11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob52.8%

A 67% / xG 0.8-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–3 9.2%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristianstad0.8

Trelleborg2.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 0.83

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.67

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Kristianstad (H) 12.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -25.4%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.0%

Trelleborg (A) 66.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristianstad face Trelleborg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristianstad a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Trelleborg 67%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Kristianstad and 2.4 for Trelleborg (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristianstad are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 2.67 for Trelleborg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Kristianstad vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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