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Laholm vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 14 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 11:00

Laholm

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Utsikten

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.0%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.3%1-17.4%1-24.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-19.3%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.8%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-18.8%4+-25.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 1.73 +2.2%

Draw 21.2% 3.80 -11.7%

Away win 19.7% 3.90 -13.9%

Over 2.5 66.3% 1.53 +1.4%

Over 3.5 43.6% 2.35 +2.5%

BTTS 61.6% 1.50 -7.6%

Home Over 1.5 61.9% 1.57 -2.8%

Away Over 1.5 36.3% 2.55 -7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 59% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Laholm2.5

Utsikten1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHOLM · PPG 0.80

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Laholm (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +2.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.7%

Utsikten (A) 19.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Laholm face Utsikten in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Laholm a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Utsikten 20%, so Laholm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Laholm and 1.2 for Utsikten (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Laholm are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.50 for Utsikten. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.8%.

Laholm vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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