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Olympic vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 14 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 11:00

Olympic

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eskilsminne

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.2%0-23.5%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.1%1-18.5%1-27.0%1-33.8%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.2%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.5%3-15.8%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.7%4+-23.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 2.35 +15.8%

Draw 22.5% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 28.2% 2.50 -17.7%

Over 2.5 66.1% 1.53 +1.1%

Over 3.5 43.6% 2.35 +2.5%

BTTS 63.5% 1.44 -8.6%

Home Over 1.5 54.8% 1.85 +1.4%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.95 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympic2.0

Eskilsminne1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIC · PPG 1.50

ESKILSMINNE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Olympic (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +15.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Eskilsminne (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympic face Eskilsminne in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympic a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Eskilsminne 28%, so Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Olympic and 1.6 for Eskilsminne (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympic are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Eskilsminne. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.9%.

Olympic vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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