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Kristianstad vs Laholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 13 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Kristianstad

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Laholm

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.3%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-110.2%1-25.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.4%3-16.3%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 63.7% 1.57 -15.5%

Draw 22.4% 25.3% 3.95 -6.9%

Away win 23.8% 20.8% 4.80 +8.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 40.0% 42.6% 2.35 -6.0%

BTTS 61.7% 64.5% 1.55 -4.4%

Home O1.5 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Away O1.5 34.4% 34.5% 2.90 -0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.7%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristianstad1.9

Laholm1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 1.00

LAHOLM · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Kristianstad (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -15.5%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.9%

Laholm (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristianstad face Laholm in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristianstad a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Laholm 24%, so Kristianstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kristianstad and 1.2 for Laholm (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristianstad are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.43 for Laholm. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 0-3.

Kristianstad vs Laholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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