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Trollhattan vs Angelholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra · Matchday 14 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 11:00

Trollhattan

PPG 0.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Angelholm

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.9%0-26.6%0-34.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.0%1-19.7%1-29.3%1-36.0%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.5%2-16.8%2-26.5%2-34.2%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 45.5% 2.20 -31.6%

Draw 23.2% 27.4% 3.65 -9.2%

Away win 45.7% 36.4% 2.75 +25.7%

Over 2.5 64.4% 65.4% 1.53 -1.5%

Over 3.5 41.8% 42.6% 2.35 -1.8%

BTTS 62.0% 69.4% 1.44 -10.7%

Home O1.5 43.5% 55.6% 1.80 -21.7%

Away O1.5 49.7% 48.8% 2.05 +1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.0%

A 46% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trollhattan1.4

Angelholm1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TROLLHATTAN · PPG 0.57

ANGELHOLM · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Trollhattan (H) 31.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -31.6%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.2%

Angelholm (A) 45.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trollhattan face Angelholm in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trollhattan a 31% chance, the draw 23% and Angelholm 46%, so Angelholm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Trollhattan and 1.9 for Angelholm (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trollhattan are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.33 for Angelholm. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Trollhattan vs Angelholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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