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Hassleholms IF vs Tvaaker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 14 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 17:30

Hassleholms IF

PPG 1.17 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tvaaker

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.7%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.9%1-112.5%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 1.95 -10.5%

Draw 25.8% 3.55 -5.1%

Away win 28.3% 3.20 -5.7%

Over 2.5 53.6% 1.62 -13.2%

Over 3.5 32.6% 2.50 -18.5%

BTTS 55.8% 1.50 -16.3%

Home Over 1.5 43.5% 1.77 -23.0%

Away Over 1.5 36.3% 2.35 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -0.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.8%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hassleholms IF1.4

Tvaaker1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HASSLEHOLMS IF · PPG 1.17

TVAAKER · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Hassleholms IF (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -10.5%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.1%

Tvaaker (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hassleholms IF face Tvaaker in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hassleholms IF a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Tvaaker 28%, so Hassleholms IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hassleholms IF and 1.1 for Tvaaker (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hassleholms IF are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.33 for Tvaaker. This match finished 4-2.

Hassleholms IF vs Tvaaker Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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