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Stocksund vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 12 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Stocksund

PPG 0.50 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sollentuna

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.8%0-26.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.9%1-111.1%1-28.9%1-34.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.9%2-17.9%2-26.3%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.3%3-13.7%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 35.7% 2.80 +12.0%

Draw 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -5.3%

Away win 35.7% 47.6% 2.10 -25.0%

Over 2.5 63.6% 69.0% 1.45 -7.8%

Over 3.5 39.8% 46.5% 2.15 -14.4%

BTTS 61.6% 71.4% 1.40 -13.8%

Home O1.5 41.6% 50.0% 2.00 -16.8%

Away O1.5 49.4% 58.8% 1.70 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.6%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 4.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stocksund1.4

Sollentuna1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.50

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Stocksund (H) 40.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +12.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.3%

Sollentuna (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stocksund face Sollentuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stocksund a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Sollentuna 36%, so Stocksund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stocksund and 1.6 for Sollentuna (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stocksund are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Sollentuna. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Stocksund vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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