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Assyriska vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 14 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 17:30

Assyriska

PPG 0.83 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vasalund

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.7%0-22.6%0-31.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-03.1%1-16.2%1-26.1%1-34.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.1%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.8%3-15.6%3-25.6%3-33.7%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.7%4+-25.6%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 2.85 +37.9%

Draw 22.0% 3.65 -11.8%

Away win 29.6% 2.10 -22.7%

Over 2.5 66.3% 1.53 +1.4%

Over 3.5 48.3% 2.35 +13.5%

BTTS 68.6% 1.45 -0.5%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 2.10 +27.3%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.77 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -9.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob68.6%

H 48% / xG 2.3-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 2–2 7.1%

#3 1–1 6.2%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 3–1✓ 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Assyriska2.3

Vasalund2.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ASSYRISKA · PPG 0.83

VASALUND · PPG 0.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Assyriska (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +37.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.8%

Vasalund (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Assyriska face Vasalund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Assyriska a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Vasalund 30%, so Assyriska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Assyriska and 2.0 for Vasalund (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Assyriska are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.86 for Vasalund. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +80.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Assyriska vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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