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Gefle vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 14 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

Gefle

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Stocksund

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.0%0-24.5%0-33.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-03.2%1-17.1%1-28.0%1-36.0%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.1%2-35.4%2-4+5.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.8%3-24.3%3-33.2%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.5%4+-22.8%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 1.80 -41.0%

Draw 22.5% 4.00 -6.0%

Away win 44.7% 3.35 +49.8%

Over 2.5 67.4% 1.36 -8.3%

Over 3.5 48.3% 1.93 -6.8%

BTTS 68.6% 1.35 -7.4%

Home Over 1.5 52.6% 1.48 -22.1%

Away Over 1.5 69.5% 2.05 +42.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -9.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob68.6%

A 45% / xG 1.8-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gefle1.8

Stocksund2.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GEFLE · PPG 1.17

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Gefle (H) 32.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -41.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Stocksund (A) 44.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +49.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gefle face Stocksund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gefle a 33% chance, the draw 23% and Stocksund 45%, so Stocksund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gefle and 2.3 for Stocksund (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gefle are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Stocksund. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +73.3%.

Gefle vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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