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FBK Karlstad vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 14 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 17:00

FBK Karlstad

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 7

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hammarby Talang

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-111.9%0-29.2%0-34.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.0%2-16.2%2-24.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 3.65 +4.8%

Draw 25.3% 3.65 -4.6%

Away win 45.1% 1.80 -18.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 1.55 -16.6%

Over 3.5 32.6% 2.38 -22.4%

BTTS 55.6% 1.48 -17.7%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 2.45 -13.0%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.65 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -9.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-7

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.6%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBK Karlstad1.0

Hammarby Talang1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 1.83

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

FBK Karlstad (H) 29.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +4.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.6%

Hammarby Talang (A) 45.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBK Karlstad face Hammarby Talang in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBK Karlstad a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Hammarby Talang 45%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FBK Karlstad and 1.5 for Hammarby Talang (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBK Karlstad are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 3.00 for Hammarby Talang. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 0-7.

FBK Karlstad vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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