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Karlberg vs Pitea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 14 ·Wednesday, June 24, 2026, 17:00

Karlberg

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pitea

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.2%0-23.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.9%1-19.8%1-27.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.8%3-24.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 1.36 -33.1%

Draw 22.7% 4.60 +2.6%

Away win 28.2% 6.25 +45.8%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.42 -9.0%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.05 -18.4%

BTTS 61.6% 1.57 -3.3%

Win probability 1X2

Karlberg (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -33.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +2.6%

Pitea (A) 28.2%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +45.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlberg1.9

Pitea1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLBERG · PPG 0.83

PITEA · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.83) vs Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlberg face Pitea in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Wednesday, June 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlberg a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Pitea 28%, so Karlberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Karlberg and 1.4 for Pitea (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlberg are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.17 for Pitea. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +49.1%.

Karlberg vs Pitea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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