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Pitea vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra · Matchday 13 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 11:00

Pitea

PPG 0.17 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.9%0-26.7%0-35.0%0-4+4.9%1 1-03.6%1-18.1%1-29.2%1-37.0%1-4+6.7%2 2-02.5%2-15.6%2-26.4%2-34.8%2-4+4.7%3 3-01.1%3-12.6%3-23.0%3-32.2%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.2%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.3% 33.3% 3.00 -21.7%

Draw 22.2% 26.3% 3.80 -9.4%

Away win 56.5% 50.0% 2.00 +13.0%

Over 2.5 65.0% 69.0% 1.45 -5.8%

Over 3.5 42.4% 46.5% 2.15 -8.8%

BTTS 61.7% 70.4% 1.42 -12.4%

Home O1.5 43.1% 47.6% 2.10 -9.5%

Away O1.5 68.6% 60.6% 1.65 +13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.7%

A 56% / xG 1.4-2.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 1–3 7.0%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2✓ 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pitea1.4

AFC Eskilstuna2.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PITEA · PPG 0.17

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 1.40

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.17)

Win probability 1X2

Pitea (H) 21.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -21.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.4%

AFC Eskilstuna (A) 56.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pitea face AFC Eskilstuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pitea a 21% chance, the draw 22% and AFC Eskilstuna 56%, so AFC Eskilstuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Pitea and 2.3 for AFC Eskilstuna (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pitea are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 1.40 for AFC Eskilstuna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Pitea vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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