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Umea vs Jarfalla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 14 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 14:00

Umea

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jarfalla

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.5%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.7%1-110.2%1-26.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.4%3-15.8%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.1%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 1.85 -7.5%

Draw 22.9% 3.80 -7.8%

Away win 27.0% 3.30 -6.5%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.42 -9.0%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.05 -18.4%

BTTS 61.6% 1.38 -15.0%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.57 -14.6%

Away Over 1.5 38.9% 2.10 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.6%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umea1.9

Jarfalla1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEA · PPG 1.33

JARFALLA · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Umea (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -7.5%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.8%

Jarfalla (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea face Jarfalla in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Jarfalla 27%, so Umea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Umea and 1.3 for Jarfalla (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.86 for Jarfalla.

Umea vs Jarfalla Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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