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Enkoping vs Umea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 13 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 13:00

Enkoping

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Umea

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.6%0-24.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.3%1-19.8%1-27.7%1-34.0%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.3%3-15.1%3-24.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.4%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 2.30 -0.2%

Draw 22.8% 3.60 -10.8%

Away win 33.8% 2.55 -13.8%

Over 2.5 64.0% 1.55 -0.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% 2.38 -4.8%

BTTS 62.2% 1.45 -9.8%

Win probability 1X2

Enkoping (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -0.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.8%

Umea (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -17.7%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.2%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enkoping1.8

Umea1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ENKOPING · PPG 1.86

UMEA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Match Preview & Prediction

Enkoping face Umea in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enkoping a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Umea 34%, so Enkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Enkoping and 1.6 for Umea (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enkoping are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.33 for Umea. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.5%.

Enkoping vs Umea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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