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Arlanda vs Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 14 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 14:00

Arlanda

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Karlstad

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-115.4%0-27.6%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.5%1-113.4%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.9%2-15.9%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.7%3-11.7%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 3.10 +9.1%

Draw 30.0% 3.55 +6.5%

Away win 34.8% 2.00 -30.4%

Over 2.5 44.2% 1.70 -24.9%

Over 3.5 23.6% 2.75 -21.1%

BTTS 48.1% 1.57 -24.5%

Home Over 1.5 32.5% 2.45 -20.4%

Away Over 1.5 32.7% 1.85 -39.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -9.3%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.4%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arlanda0.9

Karlstad1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARLANDA · PPG 1.71

KARLSTAD · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Arlanda (H) 35.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +9.1%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +6.5%

Karlstad (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arlanda face Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arlanda a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Karlstad 35%, so Arlanda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Arlanda and 1.0 for Karlstad (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arlanda are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.33 for Karlstad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.1%.

Arlanda vs Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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