Karlstad vs Gefle Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Sweden - Ettan - Norra Norra - 12 Sola Arena· Karlstad Saturday, June 13, 2026 14:00

Karlstad PPG 2.17

VS PENDING

Gefle PPG 0.67

Home + Over 2.5· +13.3% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlstad face Gefle in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlstad a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Gefle 14%, so Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Karlstad and 0.7 for Gefle (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlstad are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Gefle. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.3%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 66.9%

Odds: 1.44 EV: -3.7%

Draw 19.1%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -16.4%

Away 13.9%

Odds: 5.00 EV: -18.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.5% Odds: 1.65 +4.8%

Over 3.5 39.8% Odds: 2.50 -0.5%

BTTS 50.7% Odds: 1.67 -15.3%

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0

2nd 3-0

3rd 1-0

4th 2-1

5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Karlstad

2.41

Gefle

0.69

Model SuggestionHome -3.7% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-3.7%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5/Under 64%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -25.3%

Bet Hit 42% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.17), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus