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Karlstad vs Gefle Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 12 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Karlstad

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gefle

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.1%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.9%1-17.5%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-19.0%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.6%3-17.2%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.2%4+-17.7%4+-22.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.9% 69.4% 1.44 -3.7%

Draw 19.1% 26.3% 3.80 -16.4%

Away win 13.9% 20.0% 5.00 -18.3%

Over 2.5 63.5% 60.6% 1.65 +4.8%

Over 3.5 39.8% 40.0% 2.50 -0.5%

BTTS 50.7% 59.9% 1.67 -15.3%

Home O1.5 61.0% 65.4% 1.53 -6.7%

Away O1.5 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.7%

H 67% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 13.1%

#2 3–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlstad2.4

Gefle0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSTAD · PPG 2.17

GEFLE · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.17), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Karlstad (H) 66.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -3.7%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -16.4%

Gefle (A) 13.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlstad face Gefle in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlstad a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Gefle 14%, so Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Karlstad and 0.7 for Gefle (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlstad are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Gefle. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Karlstad vs Gefle Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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