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Jarfalla vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 12 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Jarfalla

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Arlanda

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-111.8%0-212.3%0-38.5%0-4+7.2%1 1-04.5%1-19.3%1-29.7%1-36.7%1-4+5.7%2 2-01.8%2-13.7%2-23.8%2-32.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.5%3-11.0%3-21.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.4% 25.6% 3.90 -21.6%

Draw 22.3% 27.0% 3.70 -10.5%

Away win 61.4% 57.1% 1.75 +7.4%

Over 2.5 60.6% 61.7% 1.62 -1.8%

Over 3.5 37.1% 40.0% 2.50 -7.2%

BTTS 53.3% 64.5% 1.55 -17.4%

Home O1.5 33.0% 37.7% 2.65 -12.6%

Away O1.5 49.4% 60.6% 1.65 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob53.3%

A 61% / xG 0.8-2.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.3%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–3 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jarfalla0.8

Arlanda2.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JARFALLA · PPG 1.20

ARLANDA · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Jarfalla (H) 16.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -21.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.5%

Arlanda (A) 61.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jarfalla face Arlanda in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jarfalla a 16% chance, the draw 22% and Arlanda 61%, so Arlanda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Jarfalla and 2.1 for Arlanda (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jarfalla are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.20 for Arlanda. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Jarfalla vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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