Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Grindavik vs Leiknir R.

Grindavik vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 16 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 19:15

Grindavik

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-111.8%0-25.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.8%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-17.5%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 49.5% 2.02 -15.8%

Draw 29.7% 27.8% 3.60 +4.2%

Away win 28.6% 34.5% 2.90 -10.2%

Over 2.5 45.7% 71.4% 1.40 -36.0%

Over 3.5 26.0% 50.5% 1.98 -29.1%

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% 62.5% 1.60 -47.8%

Away O1.5 24.4% 51.5% 1.94 -31.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grindavik1.1

Leiknir R.0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GRINDAVIK · PPG 1.00

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.14

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grindavik (H) 41.7%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -15.8%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +4.2%

Leiknir R. (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grindavik face Leiknir R. in Iceland - 1. Deild on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grindavik a 42% chance, the draw 30% and Leiknir R. 29%, so Grindavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Grindavik and 0.9 for Leiknir R. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grindavik are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Leiknir R..

Grindavik vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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