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Throttur Reykjavik vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 16 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 19:15

Throttur Reykjavik

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Afturelding

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.6%0-23.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.0%1-19.1%1-26.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.9%3-15.9%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.6%4+-23.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 48.3% 2.07 +0.6%

Draw 22.9% 27.8% 3.60 -10.5%

Away win 28.6% 35.7% 2.80 -11.9%

Over 2.5 63.6% 73.5% 1.36 -13.5%

Over 3.5 40.6% 52.6% 1.90 -22.9%

BTTS 62.6% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% 63.3% 1.58 -15.3%

Away O1.5 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.6%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Throttur Reykjavik2.0

Afturelding1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

THROTTUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.12

AFTURELDING · PPG 2.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Throttur Reykjavik (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.07 · IMPLIED 48.3% EV +0.6%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.5%

Afturelding (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Throttur Reykjavik face Afturelding in Iceland - 1. Deild on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Throttur Reykjavik a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Afturelding 29%, so Throttur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Throttur Reykjavik and 1.5 for Afturelding (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Throttur Reykjavik are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 2.14 for Afturelding.

Throttur Reykjavik vs Afturelding Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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