Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Ægir vs Njardvik

Ægir vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 16 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 19:15

Ægir

PPG 0.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Njardvik

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.7%0-25.5%0-33.5%0-4+2.7%1 1-04.7%1-19.1%1-28.8%1-35.6%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.0%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.0%3-13.8%3-23.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 21.7% 4.60 +67.0%

Draw 21.7% 24.1% 4.15 -6.0%

Away win 42.0% 65.4% 1.53 -35.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 74.1% 1.35 -9.6%

Over 3.5 44.5% 51.8% 1.93 -14.1%

BTTS 64.5% 69.9% 1.43 -7.8%

Home O1.5 51.5% 39.8% 2.51 +29.3%

Away O1.5 49.0% 71.4% 1.40 -31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob64.5%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ægir1.6

Njardvik1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ÆGIR · PPG 0.43

NJARDVIK · PPG 0.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ægir (H) 36.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +67.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.15 · IMPLIED 24.1% EV -6.0%

Njardvik (A) 42.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -35.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ægir face Njardvik in Iceland - 1. Deild on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ægir a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Njardvik 42%, so Njardvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ægir and 1.9 for Njardvik (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ægir are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.57 for Njardvik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.9%.

Ægir vs Njardvik Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 1. Deild Predictions