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Fylkir vs Völsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Regular Season - 16 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 18:00

Fylkir

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Völsungur

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.22 for Home, form 2.14 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.5%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.9%1-14.8%1-22.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.8%2-17.7%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-014.9%4+-114.6%4+-27.2%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% 84.7% 1.18 -23.8%

Draw 16.8% 16.0% 6.25 +3.0%

Away win 18.6% 10.0% 10.00 +51.6%

Over 2.5 72.7% 78.1% 1.28 -6.9%

Over 3.5 48.3% 57.8% 1.73 -16.4%

BTTS 62.1% 58.8% 1.70 +5.6%

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 28.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.1%

H 65% / xG 3.2-1.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 4–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fylkir3.2

Völsungur1.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FYLKIR · PPG 2.14

VÖLSUNGUR · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.22 for Home, form 2.14 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fylkir (H) 64.6%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -23.8%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +3.0%

Völsungur (A) 18.6%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +51.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fylkir face Völsungur in Iceland - 1. Deild on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fylkir a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Völsungur 19%, so Fylkir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Fylkir and 1.0 for Völsungur (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fylkir are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.43 for Völsungur. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +5.6%.

Fylkir vs Völsungur Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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